{"id":3880,"date":"2023-06-20T15:38:30","date_gmt":"2023-06-20T19:38:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.advancedpokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/?p=3880"},"modified":"2023-06-20T15:38:33","modified_gmt":"2023-06-20T19:38:33","slug":"the-danger-of-wishful-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/","title":{"rendered":"The Danger of Wishful Thinking"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Today I want to talk about the difference between positive thinking <\/strong>and wishful thinking.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive thinking<\/strong> is beneficial, in life and in poker, as it helps cultivate confidence. When you approach the game with a positive attitude, it can enhance your decision-making abilities and overall performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Confidence in poker is important because it allows you to make calculated risks, trust your instincts, and effectively manage your emotions. Positive thinking can help you maintain composure during both winning and losing streaks, enabling you to make rational decisions under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wishful Thinking<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, wishful thinking<\/strong> in poker can be detrimental. If you engage in wishful thinking, you might make irrational decisions or take unnecessary risks, hoping for a favorable outcome without considering the actual odds or probabilities involved. Wishful thinking can cloud your judgment, lead to impulsive actions, and ultimately result in poor decision-making. This can be costly in a game like poker that requires strategic thinking and risk assessment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are some actual hands shared with me, where I believe \u201cwishful thinking\u201d took over and led our Hero to unnecessary gambling.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Example Hands<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Example Hand #1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Middle stage of a Saturday $10K guarantee. 9 handed. Blinds 2K\/4K\/4K.   Hero starts the hand with 80K.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pre-flop:<\/strong> UTG+1 (Bill) raises to 10K.  HJ (Clayton) calls 10K.  BB (Hero) calls with J♣-9♣.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flop: <\/strong> Q♥<\/mark>-6♣-4♣.  36K in the pot.  Hero checks.  Bill bets 20K.  Clayton raises to 70K.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wishful Thinking:<\/strong>\u00a0 \u201cI\u2019m only 2 to 1 against making my flush draw.\u00a0 If Bill calls, the odds will be better than that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Truth:<\/strong> \u00a0Bill might fold.\u00a0 We could be up against a better flush draw, in which case we\u2019re practically drawing dead.\u00a0 We could also be up against a set. To account for these factors, we need to be getting significantly more than 2 to 1 here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What actually happened:<\/strong>  Hero calls.  Bill folds.  Clayton shows 6♦<\/mark>-6♠ and is nearly a 3 to 1 favorite.  Just for spite, the board runs out Q♥<\/mark>-6♣-4♣-9♦<\/mark>-9♠ and Hero is eliminated with trip 9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Example Hand #2<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Early in a daily tournament, blinds 200\/400\/400.  9-handed. Hero starts the hand with 25K.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pre-flop: Hero is dealt 7♣-7♠ from UTG and raises to 1K.  UTG+1 (Margaret) re-raises to 4K.  A tight player on the Button (Rob) cold calls 4K. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wishful Thinking:<\/strong> \u201cIf I flop a set I\u2019ll stack one of them. And I could win unimproved. I\u2019ll call.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Truth:<\/strong>\u00a0 From UTG+1, this is a strong 3-bet from Margaret.\u00a0 Rob is likely to be calling with a better pair than Hero\u2019s. Pocket 7s are almost never winning the showdown unimproved. Out of position, we won\u2019t always get the full double up when we flop a set (which will only happen 12% of the time anyway!)\u00a0 Occasionally set-over-set will happen and we\u2019ll certainly lose our entire stack.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What actually happened:<\/strong> J♣-T♥<\/mark>-7♥<\/mark> flop.\u00a0 Hero checks, Margaret bets 6k.\u00a0 Rob goes all-in.\u00a0 Hero calls.\u00a0 Margaret folds.\u00a0 Rob shows J♦<\/mark>-J♠ for top set. Hero is eliminated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While positive thinking<\/strong> can enhance your confidence and decision-making abilities, wishful thinking<\/strong> can be counterproductive and lead to \u201cunwise gambling choices\u201d. The best players know how to strike a balance between a positive mindset and a realistic understanding of the situation, considering both the opportunities and risks involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like this post? Head on over to the sidebar and subscribe. We will let you know whenever a new APT blog post goes live!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today I want to talk about the difference between positive thinking and wishful thinking. Positive thinking is beneficial, in life and in poker, as it helps cultivate confidence. When you approach the game with a positive attitude, it can enhance your decision-making abilities and overall performance. Confidence in poker is important because it allows you […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3886,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Danger of Wishful Thinking - Advanced Poker Training Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"APT Founder Steve Blay discusses the difference between Positive Thinking and Wishful Thinking in Poker and provides examples.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Danger of Wishful Thinking - Advanced Poker Training Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"APT Founder Steve Blay discusses the difference between Positive Thinking and Wishful Thinking in Poker and provides examples.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Advanced Poker Training Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-06-20T19:38:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-06-20T19:38:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Wishful-Thinking.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"315\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Blay\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Blay\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/\",\"name\":\"The Danger of Wishful Thinking - Advanced Poker Training Blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Wishful-Thinking.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-20T19:38:30+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-06-20T19:38:33+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/53e1a6b4564a37cac4567b17ee4d019f\"},\"description\":\"APT Founder Steve Blay discusses the difference between Positive Thinking and Wishful Thinking in Poker and provides examples.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Wishful-Thinking.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Wishful-Thinking.jpg\",\"width\":630,\"height\":315,\"caption\":\"Wishful Thinking\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Danger of Wishful Thinking\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Advanced Poker Training Blog\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/53e1a6b4564a37cac4567b17ee4d019f\",\"name\":\"Steve Blay\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c8a24ad74654fb20f512da9b604a73fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c8a24ad74654fb20f512da9b604a73fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Steve Blay\"},\"description\":\"Steve Blay is a poker author, inventor, and the founder of Advanced Poker Training.\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/author\/steveblay\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Danger of Wishful Thinking - Advanced Poker Training Blog","description":"APT Founder Steve Blay discusses the difference between Positive Thinking and Wishful Thinking in Poker and provides examples.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Danger of Wishful Thinking - Advanced Poker Training Blog","og_description":"APT Founder Steve Blay discusses the difference between Positive Thinking and Wishful Thinking in Poker and provides examples.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/","og_site_name":"Advanced Poker Training Blog","article_published_time":"2023-06-20T19:38:30+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-06-20T19:38:33+00:00","og_image":[{"width":630,"height":315,"url":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Wishful-Thinking.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Steve Blay","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Steve Blay","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/","url":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/","name":"The Danger of Wishful Thinking - Advanced Poker Training Blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Wishful-Thinking.jpg","datePublished":"2023-06-20T19:38:30+00:00","dateModified":"2023-06-20T19:38:33+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/53e1a6b4564a37cac4567b17ee4d019f"},"description":"APT Founder Steve Blay discusses the difference between Positive Thinking and Wishful Thinking in Poker and provides examples.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Wishful-Thinking.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Wishful-Thinking.jpg","width":630,"height":315,"caption":"Wishful Thinking"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/the-danger-of-wishful-thinking\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Danger of Wishful Thinking"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/","name":"Advanced Poker Training Blog","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/53e1a6b4564a37cac4567b17ee4d019f","name":"Steve Blay","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c8a24ad74654fb20f512da9b604a73fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c8a24ad74654fb20f512da9b604a73fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Steve Blay"},"description":"Steve Blay is a poker author, inventor, and the founder of Advanced Poker Training.","sameAs":["http:\/\/www.pokertraining.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/author\/steveblay\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Wishful-Thinking.jpg","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6C1Pb-10A","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3880","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3880"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3880\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3890,"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3880\/revisions\/3890"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3886"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}