{"id":600,"date":"2016-10-11T23:31:05","date_gmt":"2016-10-12T03:31:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.advancedpokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/?p=600"},"modified":"2016-10-21T11:49:14","modified_gmt":"2016-10-21T15:49:14","slug":"we-predict-who-will-win-the-2016-wsop-main-event-november-nine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/we-predict-who-will-win-the-2016-wsop-main-event-november-nine\/","title":{"rendered":"We predict who will win the 2016 WSOP Main Event!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The November Nine will soon be battling it out in Las Vegas. \u00a0Who will win the 2016 WSOP Main Event?\u00a0 Advanced Poker Training decided to run 100 simulations and see who came out on top.<\/p>\n<h2>The Process<\/h2>\n<p>We started by consulting with the folks at <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/goto\/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5wb2tlcnRyYWluaW5nLmNvbS9wb2tlci9saW5rLnBocD9jbD02OQ==\"  target=\"_blank\">Pokernews.com<\/a>, who had personally interviewed each of the remaining players.\u00a0 Using what we learned about each player\u2019s personality, plus what we know about their playing style from past results, we created a virtual representation of each player. \u00a0Our patented system allows us to configure 42 personality factors for each opponent (bot). \u00a0We then sat them around a table, gave them the exact chip stack they\u2019ll be starting with in November (err&#8230;actually October 30<span style=\"font-size: 13.3333px\">th<\/span>), and had them battle it out.\u00a0 We repeated this simulation 100 times\u2026and the results may surprise you.<\/p>\n<h2>The Opponent Modeling<\/h2>\n<p>After our initial assessment, this was the personality style we arrived at for each bot:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Cliff Josephy:<\/strong> \u00a0Given that he has the most experience, he will play as close to optimal as possible, while using his big stack to be aggressive towards the smaller stacks, and also adjusting his game to his opponent\u2019s tendencies as the final table plays out.\u00a0 (For example, if things don\u2019t go well and he gets back to an average stack size, he will switch gears well).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Qui Nguyen: \u00a0<\/strong>This bot will be over-aggressive, and will not adjust his style well if things aren\u2019t going well.\u00a0 He will also make some occasional bad plays post-flop.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gordon Vayo:<\/strong> \u00a0Will play tighter than the Cliff Josephy bot.\u00a0 Will adjust well to changes in stack size, and things that don\u2019t go his way.\u00a0 Very few mistakes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kenny Hallaert:\u00a0<\/strong> Will play a very sound pre-flop tournament game (taking advantage of blind steal situations, squeeze plays, etc).\u00a0 Might play a little less optimal on any hands that reach the later streets where instinct would be more of a factor, where Cliff and Gordon might have an edge on him due to the sheer number of hands they\u2019ve played.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Michael Ruane:\u00a0<\/strong> Plays a mathematical (game theory optimal) style.\u00a0 Will start off tight-aggressive for the first level or two but will gradually loosen up, especially if his stack is going up.\u00a0 Will attack the stacks shorter than him when possible.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vojtech Ruzicka:\u00a0<\/strong> Will play similar to Michael Ruane, but will have to build up some chips before he loosens up.\u00a0 May make an occasional error due to nerves so I\u2019ll incorporate that into the bot too.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Griffin Benger:<\/strong>\u00a0 Will play well, but will not be capable on many moves due to his stack size. \u00a0Will mostly have to play tight and only get involved with premium hands or in late position once the big stacks have folded.\u00a0 A lot of his success will weigh on the stack size of the players to his left.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jerry Wong:<\/strong>\u00a0 Given the size of the blinds, he will be looking for an opportunity to re-raise someone all-in pre-flop.\u00a0 He most likely will try this against a medium-stack opener who has a lot to lose by dropping $10M in chips.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fernando Pons:\u00a0<\/strong> Is basically in shove or fold mode.\u00a0 Will be looking early on for a spot to shove, but without the knowledge of optimal shoving strategy that Jerry Wong has.\u00a0 If he does double up, he will be more of a wild card.\u00a0 Potentially making mistakes and\/or bizarre plays that might keep his opponents guessing.\u00a0 Has no fear of getting eliminated.<\/p>\n<h2>The Results<\/h2>\n<p>A total of <strong>35,894<\/strong> hands were played over the 100 simulations, making for an average of 359 hands per final table, until the winner was declared. \u00a0The table below shows the results. \u00a0It shows the <strong>Actual Wins<\/strong> for each player (in the simulation), versus the <strong>Predicted Wins<\/strong> (based solely on their starting chip stack). \u00a0It also shows the <strong>Percent Difference<\/strong>\u00a0between their actual and predicted dollars won. \u00a0The higher the number, the better their performance. \u00a0(The Predicted values were arrived at using the Independent Chip Model, or ICM)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/november_nine_results.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-610\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/november_nine_results.jpg\" alt=\"november_nine_results\" width=\"679\" height=\"612\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>A Few Quick Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Cliff Josephy<\/strong> underperformed (surprisingly).\u00a0 He only won 17 of the 100 simulations. \u00a0He was expected to win 22. \u00a0However, he was only down by 7% overall, indicating he did finish highly in most of the simulations.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fernando Pons<\/strong> managed to win 5 times, quite an accomplishment.\u00a0 He won 19% more prize money than expected.\u00a0 Perhaps we corrected accounted for his no-fear attitude, and that helped him.<\/li>\n<li>The biggest surprise was <strong>Qui Nguyen<\/strong>, winning 26 times instead of the (predicted) 20.\u00a0 The fact that he was only up by 9% overall though, indicates that he probably crashed and burned a bunch of times too, which would make sense since we made his bot the gambler of the bunch.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>You can check out the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/goto\/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5wb2tlcnRyYWluaW5nLmNvbS9wb2tlci9saW5rLnBocD9jbD02OQ==\"  target=\"_blank\">ongoing coverage of this story on Pokernews.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Update October 17, 2016: \u00a0<a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/goto\/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5wb2tlcnRyYWluaW5nLmNvbS9wb2tlci9saW5rLnBocD9jbD03MQ==\"  target=\"_blank\">Part 2 of the series is now on Pokernews.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The November Nine will soon be battling it out in Las Vegas. \u00a0Who will win the 2016 WSOP Main Event?\u00a0 Advanced Poker Training decided to run 100 simulations and see who came out on top. The Process We started by consulting with the folks at Pokernews.com, who had personally interviewed each of the remaining players.\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":601,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-advanced","category-beginner","category-intermediate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>We predict who will win the 2016 WSOP Main Event! - Advanced Poker Training Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pokertraining.com\/poker\/blog\/we-predict-who-will-win-the-2016-wsop-main-event-november-nine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"We predict who will win the 2016 WSOP Main Event! - Advanced Poker Training Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The November Nine will soon be battling it out in Las Vegas. \u00a0Who will win the 2016 WSOP Main Event?\u00a0 Advanced Poker Training decided to run 100 simulations and see who came out on top. 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